Near-misses are a learning opportunities. But our outcome bias can make us blind to these opportunities.
IT projects and other planned changes frequently fail - They exceed budgets, timelines, or fail to deliver the expected benefits. It may not be a technology problem. It may be a people problem. And there could be a very rational reason for this problem that should have been considered from the start.
What was fit-for-purpose 3 years ago may no longer be fit for purpose now. We knew this when we were 8. Now that we are responsible for the success of our organisations, why have we forgotten this?
When people talk about 'risk', they usually think about 'likelihood'. But risk is not just about likelihood. It's also about impact. And when we think about impact, we start to pay attention.